tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70921977998866014272023-11-15T06:16:42.198-08:00JKLiskCommentary and Stat Analysis on the NFL, and maybe some other sports of interest in the Kansas City area.Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-9559340437213620952007-09-30T09:54:00.000-07:002007-09-30T10:04:26.795-07:00WEEK FOUR NFL PICKSLEVEL FIVE:Atlanta +3 vs. HoustonArizona +6.5 vs. PittsburghLEVEL FOUR:San Diego -11.5 vs KCPhilly -3 at NYGLEVEL THREESt Louis +13 at DALLASBaltimore -4 at CLEVELANDNY Jets -3.5 at BUFFALOMINNESOTA +3 vs Green BayDETROIT +3 vs ChicagoLEVEL TWOCINCY +7.5 vs New EnglandSeattle -2 at SAN FRANPHI/NYG UNDER 48KC/SD OVER 40PIT/ARI UNDER 41LEVEL ONETampa Bay +3 at CAROLINAMIAMI -3.5 vs OaklandDenver +Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-61757992675820875132007-09-23T10:00:00.001-07:002007-09-23T10:14:35.709-07:00WEEK 3 NFL PICKSQuick Picks this week:LEVEL 5Buffalo +16.5LEVEL 4NY Giants +4.5LEVEL 3Minnesota +3Jacksonville +3.5TAMPA BAY -3.5NEW ORLEANS -4Cincinnati +3LEVEL 2PHILADELPHIA -5.5ATLANTA +4.5CHICAGO -3LEVEL 1NY JETS -3GREEN BAY +6HOUSTON +6.5PITTSBURGH -9.5Arizona +7.5Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-56128261558871095752007-09-16T07:21:00.000-07:002007-09-16T08:25:57.738-07:00WEEK TWO NFL PICKSLast week:Level of picks:5: 0-04: 0-03: 2-1-12: 2-51: 1-2-1======================================================Last week, I didn't like all that much, and should have stayed away from the over/under "guesses". This week, I do like more games, including making one my first 5-rated pick.1. ARIZONA +2 1/2 vs. Seattle (5). Arizona's D actually looked quite good for 58 minutes of the game against Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-81433929616567270012007-09-07T21:41:00.000-07:002007-09-09T05:02:44.651-07:00WEEK ONE NFL PICKSJust to make a record, to see how good or bad I do this year in predicting games, I am going to post about 15-20 picks per week here. Maybe some commentary, maybe not. I am going to assign a confidence rating of 1-5 on each pick, with most being lower. In other words, random guesses.For week one, for the most part, no real strong feelings. There are three divisional games between outdoor Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-79458731028523019412007-04-23T13:06:00.000-07:002007-04-29T12:38:12.857-07:00Temperature Differences and Home Field AdvantageBack in October 2006, the pro-football-reference blog posted a two part guest post I prepared on the effects of travel distance and climate here, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=156 and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=157.This is a refinement of that information, plus the info with all games, not just divisional.I tweaked the methodology on climate Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-66306562051595794672007-04-13T22:04:00.000-07:002007-04-13T22:57:35.283-07:00KickersSome random NFL kicker items from the 2006 season:First, did the NFL juice up the ball last year for kickers? I looked at the touchback stats for all kickers who kicked off at least 50 times in both 2005 and 2006. Here are the results:2005: 179 touchbacks out of 1,847 kickoffs (9.7%)2006: 250 touchbacks out of 1,824 kickoffs (13.7%)Of the 25 kickers qualifying under my criteria, 13 of them showedJason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-13084484211107702852007-04-02T20:17:00.000-07:002007-04-02T21:11:03.871-07:00HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE AND TIME ZONE CHANGESHow much does the change in time zone effect the home field advantage?To attempt to come up with an approximate answer to this question, I used the home team wins and losses in all games since 1986, sorted by climate and distance. I eliminated games involving dome teams (for now) because I wanted to isolate the effect without the noise coming from the advantage of outdoor teams vs. dome teams.Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-79977449374888048972007-03-23T05:07:00.000-07:002007-03-23T05:20:12.366-07:00Teams Drafting Running Backs or Wide Receivers Early in the DraftThis post follows these two: http://jklisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/teams-drafting-quarterbacks-or.html and http://jklisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/building-team-right-way-early-in-draft.html.Following the same format, here is the data for the Running Back and Receiver Teams.RUNNING BACKSYear N-1: 44 . . . 0.325 . . . 5.2 . . . 1 . . . 0Year N : 44 . . . 0.477 . . . 7.6 . . . 19. . . 6Year N+1: 43 . Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-4325607890894437272007-03-09T09:51:00.000-08:002007-04-10T06:01:11.230-07:00Teams drafting Quarterbacks or Offensive Linemen Early in the DraftThis is a continuation of this post, http://jklisk.blogspot.com/2007/03/building-team-right-way-early-in-draft.html. To start, here are the results of looking at teams drafting QB's and OL's in the first 12 picks of the NFL draft, since 1978.Year N-1 represents the year before the player was drafted. We would expect the records this year to be poor, because the team would not be drafting in the Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-50335551668575123802007-03-02T04:11:00.000-08:002007-03-09T09:51:04.963-08:00Building a Team the Right Way Early in the DraftI am going to predict that, leading up to the NFL draft, you are going to hear many draftniks and fans say that (insert bad team name from last year here) should draft OT Joe Thomas and not take a QB or RB early in the draft, because you build the team the right way by going for offensive line, and some variation on QB's being more risky, and RB's being fungible.Off and on over the next month andJason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-74635825680513935442007-03-02T03:44:00.000-08:002007-03-02T04:04:02.853-08:00Lineup PlacementIn the Royals first spring training game yesterday, former first overall pick and top prospect Alex Gordon was in the lineup in the 7th spot. The commentators on sports radio whb 810 stated that this is probably where he was going to start the season. I don't know if they were basing it on inside information from the manager, or if it was speculation. This does, however, pass for conventional Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-38562078984094501592007-02-20T10:58:00.000-08:002007-03-02T04:10:22.971-08:00A Yard is a YardA few weeks ago, Doug Drinen posted a study on his blog starting here- http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=243 that looked at evidence of irrational coaching behavior, by looking at the difference between run/pass distribution on 2nd and 10, depending on whether the previous unsuccessful play was a run or a pass.That post got me thinking about other potential examples of Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-80767350026475173112007-02-12T04:43:00.000-08:002007-02-16T13:32:06.007-08:00Does Saunders create bad defense?This was posted on the KC Chiefs website by Bob Gretz on January 19, 2007, in an article about defensive rankings:"WASHINGTON’S DEMISE: Could it be that what the Chiefs proved for the betterpart of five years and what the Redskins showed in 2006 is that it’simpossibleto have a good defense when Al Saunders is your team’s offensivecoordinator?There are plenty of people in the NFL, and around Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-53107427293730383072007-02-10T21:23:00.000-08:002007-02-12T03:49:31.806-08:00Home Field Advantage and PassingThis is a follow up to the previous post, in which I looked at home and road won-loss records of all teams finishing between 6-10 and 10-6 for the years 1995-2006.Here are the pass offense stats: below 6.0 - 18 teams; .576 at home; .299 on road6.1-6.3 ypa - 34 teams; .563 at home; .419 on road6.4-6.6 ypa - 43 teams; .583 at home; .407 on road6.7 -6.9 ypa- 35 teams; .577 at home; .423 on Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092197799886601427.post-40782372423599264922007-02-10T00:06:00.000-08:002007-02-12T03:48:06.559-08:00Home Field Advantage and RushingUsing the pro-football-reference.com database, I looked at all teams that finished between 6-10 and 10-6 for the years 1995-2006. Why those records? It's partially arbitrary-- I could have just as easily narrowed it to 9-7/7-9, or expanded it to 11-5/5-11. But my goal was to look at the middle class of the NFL, teams that generally have some strengths but also some flaws. I felt this dividing Jason Liskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345466885871057949noreply@blogger.com0