WEEK FOUR NFL PICKS

LEVEL FIVE:

Atlanta +3 vs. Houston
Arizona +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh

LEVEL FOUR:
San Diego -11.5 vs KC
Philly -3 at NYG

LEVEL THREE

St Louis +13 at DALLAS
Baltimore -4 at CLEVELAND
NY Jets -3.5 at BUFFALO
MINNESOTA +3 vs Green Bay
DETROIT +3 vs Chicago

LEVEL TWO
CINCY +7.5 vs New England
Seattle -2 at SAN FRAN
PHI/NYG UNDER 48
KC/SD OVER 40
PIT/ARI UNDER 41

LEVEL ONE
Tampa Bay +3 at CAROLINA
MIAMI -3.5 vs Oakland
Denver +10 at INDY
NE/CIN UNDER 52
TB/CAR UNDER 39.5

WEEK 3 NFL PICKS

Quick Picks this week:

LEVEL 5
Buffalo +16.5

LEVEL 4
NY Giants +4.5

LEVEL 3
Minnesota +3
Jacksonville +3.5
TAMPA BAY -3.5
NEW ORLEANS -4
Cincinnati +3

LEVEL 2
PHILADELPHIA -5.5
ATLANTA +4.5
CHICAGO -3

LEVEL 1
NY JETS -3
GREEN BAY +6
HOUSTON +6.5
PITTSBURGH -9.5
Arizona +7.5

WEEK TWO NFL PICKS

Last week:

Level of picks:
5: 0-0
4: 0-0
3: 2-1-1
2: 2-5
1: 1-2-1
======================================================

Last week, I didn't like all that much, and should have stayed away from the over/under "guesses". This week, I do like more games, including making one my first 5-rated pick.

1. ARIZONA +2 1/2 vs. Seattle (5). Arizona's D actually looked quite good for 58 minutes of the game against San Fransisco. Seattle's offense is banged up. Throw in the "2nd year in a new stadium" home field advantage boost and the divisional climate advantage, and I like Arizona outright here.
2. Washington +7 at PHILADELPHIA (4).
3. Kansas City +13 at CHICAGO (4).
4. Houston +7 at CAROLINA (3).
5. MIAMI +4 vs. Dallas (3).
6. Oakland +10 at DENVER (3)
7. Buffalo +10 at PITTSBURGH (2)
8. Cincinnati -8 at CLEVELAND (2)
9. ARI/SEA UNDER 42.5 (2).
10. New York Jets +10 at BALTIMORE (2).
11. San Fransisco +3 at ST. LOUIS (2).
12. TAMPA +4 1/2 vs. New Orleans (1).
13. KC/CHI UNDER 34.5 (1).
14. NY GIANTS -3 vs. Green Bay (1).
15. NEW ENGLAND -4 vs. San Diego (1).
16. NO/TB OVER 41.5. (1)
17. JAC/ATL OVER 34.5 (1)
18. HOU/CAR OVER 38.5 (1).

WEEK ONE NFL PICKS

Just to make a record, to see how good or bad I do this year in predicting games, I am going to post about 15-20 picks per week here. Maybe some commentary, maybe not. I am going to assign a confidence rating of 1-5 on each pick, with most being lower. In other words, random guesses.

For week one, for the most part, no real strong feelings. There are three divisional games between outdoor opponents who have similar climates and are from the same time zone. Over the last 10 years, the home team in these matchups is 115-148-5 ATS (44%). That trend is slightly stronger in the second matchup between teams rather than the first. The game also goes "under" 54% of the time (55% of the time in the first matchup). So, I will be making some picks based on that.

Here is my first attempt at picks in 2007:

1. HOUSTON -3 vs. Kansas City. (3) Chiefs O-line is a mess, offense has not had opportunity to play together. I don't see the 2007 Chiefs as being a poor road team, and it gets started in week 1.
2. NE/NYJ UNDER 41. (3). See above on same climate rivals.
3. New England -6 at NY JETS. (3). Ditto.
4. WASHINGTON -3 vs. Miami (3).
5. Atlanta +3 at MINNESOTA (2).
6. Pittsburgh -4 1/2 at CLEVELAND (2).
7. PIT/CLE UNDER 37.5 (2).
8. BAL/CIN UNDER 40.5 (2).
9. Tampa Bay +6 at SEATTLE (2).
10. Baltimore +2 1/2 at CINCINNATI (2).
11. BUFFALO +3 vs. Denver (2). This is the only West to East cross country in week one.
12. CHI/SD OVER 42.5 (1).
13. Arizona +3 at SAN FRAN (1).
14. ATL/MIN OVER 36 (1).
15. GREEN BAY +3 vs. Philadelphia (1).