WEEK ONE NFL PICKS

Just to make a record, to see how good or bad I do this year in predicting games, I am going to post about 15-20 picks per week here. Maybe some commentary, maybe not. I am going to assign a confidence rating of 1-5 on each pick, with most being lower. In other words, random guesses.

For week one, for the most part, no real strong feelings. There are three divisional games between outdoor opponents who have similar climates and are from the same time zone. Over the last 10 years, the home team in these matchups is 115-148-5 ATS (44%). That trend is slightly stronger in the second matchup between teams rather than the first. The game also goes "under" 54% of the time (55% of the time in the first matchup). So, I will be making some picks based on that.

Here is my first attempt at picks in 2007:

1. HOUSTON -3 vs. Kansas City. (3) Chiefs O-line is a mess, offense has not had opportunity to play together. I don't see the 2007 Chiefs as being a poor road team, and it gets started in week 1.
2. NE/NYJ UNDER 41. (3). See above on same climate rivals.
3. New England -6 at NY JETS. (3). Ditto.
4. WASHINGTON -3 vs. Miami (3).
5. Atlanta +3 at MINNESOTA (2).
6. Pittsburgh -4 1/2 at CLEVELAND (2).
7. PIT/CLE UNDER 37.5 (2).
8. BAL/CIN UNDER 40.5 (2).
9. Tampa Bay +6 at SEATTLE (2).
10. Baltimore +2 1/2 at CINCINNATI (2).
11. BUFFALO +3 vs. Denver (2). This is the only West to East cross country in week one.
12. CHI/SD OVER 42.5 (1).
13. Arizona +3 at SAN FRAN (1).
14. ATL/MIN OVER 36 (1).
15. GREEN BAY +3 vs. Philadelphia (1).